Market note · 5 August 2026
From 1 October 2026, solar systems up to 1 MW can create small-scale technology certificates, against a 100 kW cap today. These charts cover how large the affected segment really is, how the certificate entitlement changes each January, and why the switch out of large-scale certificates is not a close call.
Mid-scale solar — 100 kW to 30 MW — ran at 281 installations and 286 MW a year across 2020–2024, at roughly 1 MW per site. Weighting toward the more recent years lifts that to about 300 MW. Either way this is a few hundred projects a year, not a mass market, and volumes have been lumpy rather than trending up.
CER installation data, via Jacobs, Mid-scale Solar PV System Projections, Rev 2, 18 Jul 2025 (Table 2). Complete calendar years only — 2025 was a part year at the time of publication and is excluded.
Certificates are deemed to the scheme's end in 2030, so each year of delay removes a full year of entitlement. A system commissioned in December 2026 earns a fifth more than the identical system in January 2027 — the steepest single step it will ever face, and it coincides with the first quarter the expansion is open.
Certificates = capacity (kW) × 1.382 zone rating × deeming years. Zone 3 (Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth). Deeming is 5 years for a 2026 installation, stepping to 1 year in 2030.
A 100 kW–1 MW system today must accredit as a power station and create large-scale certificates annually to the Renewable Energy Target's end in 2030. Taken upfront as small-scale certificates instead, the same generation is worth roughly three times that whole remaining stream — before counting the accreditation and annual reporting it avoids.
Large-scale stream NPV from Jacobs (Tables 11–12), on their declining certificate price deck and a 7.5% discount rate. Small-scale value shown at $39.50. On a flat, undiscounted large-scale price assumption the 250 kW ratio is nearer 1.8×.